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 Cautious
Optimism Defines the CIO
December 7, 2001
At this point everyone knows we are in the midst of an "official"
recession in the U.S. as defined by the experts. Most business owners
and executives we talk to chuckle at this "official" recession.
As one succinctly put it, "It's been obvious to even the casual
observer for several quarters now." We have received many calls
and e-mails challenging or just wishing to discuss our article,
"Strength in the IT Sector Bucks Overall
Market Trends," published 11/30/01. Most inquiries have come
from those IT Professionals who have been affected significantly
by this recession. We stated that data indicated that not only is
the highly specialized IT expert somewhat immune, but also the IT
Services Sector as a whole looks very bright. One respondent stated,
"It doesn't look very bright when you are the IT Professional looking
for work." If you are one of those IT Consulting professionals who
were part of the dot.com disaster, or just looking for your next
gig, you will be well served to dust off your more traditional skills
set. Be flexible in project assignment selection in terms of technology,
compensation, and assignment length. We maintain the IT market is
rebounding, and strong enough in the interim, to support those with
strong skill sets who are flexible.
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We stand by our belief that the IT services sector is strong when
compared to the broader market. "Cautious Optimism" are the operative
words to describe the prevailing mood in the IT services sector.
259 executives were recently surveyed in CIO's November Tech Poll.
An article related to this survey written by Lorraine Cosgroveware
for CIO.com stated: "When asked about the outlook for IT spending
in the next 12 months, panelists expected their IT budgets to grow
by 5.3% - a 13% increase from November figures and a 43% rise from
levels reported in September. Close to 40% of executives surveyed
said they do not expect IT spending to ramp up until mid-year, while
20% see an increase in spending in the first quarter of 2002." Remember
the first Quarter is almost upon us. The article further states
that "The number of CIOs that plan to increase spending rose in
three categories, including outsourced IT services, infrastructure
software and e-business software. The percent of CIOs that will
increase spending for outsourced IT services rose 19% from October
31. When asked about infrastructure software, the percent of respondents
expecting to increase spending climbed eight points to 42%. The
percent of panelists planning to increase spending in e-business
software rose 27% to 41.9%."
Bottom line: We are empathetic to those IT professionals who have
come upon hard times. We also stand by our research which clearly
indicates to us that the IT Services sector, if "officially" in
a recession today, that the recession is not deep with respect to
the IT Professional. Our research indicates any perceived IT recession
will come to a swift end in Q1 2002 and with more confidence we
state this for Q2 2002.
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